Probabilistic pathways from chronic pain to suicidal ideation in Qatar: a Bayesian-network study

Abstract

Chronic pain has been increasingly recognised as a risk factor for suicidal ideation, yet the mechanistic pathways linking the two — through depression, sleep disturbance, and other mental-health variables — are still poorly characterised in Middle-Eastern populations. Using a Bayesian-network framework applied to Qatar Biobank data, this study reconstructs the probabilistic dependence structure connecting chronic pain phenotypes to suicidal ideation, identifies plausible mediating variables, and quantifies conditional probabilities along the most likely pathways. Findings are intended to inform targeted prevention strategies and the integration of pain management into mental-health screening in Qatar.